El Niño threatens more than two-thirds of children in Eastern and Southern Africa

NAIROBI, 1 September 2026 – More than 162 million children, over two-thirds of all children in Eastern and Southern Africa, live in areas exposed to the impact of the strengthening 2026/2027 El Niño, UNICEF warned today. Intensifying drought, extreme heat and flooding threaten children’s nutrition, health, access to safe water and sanitation, education and safety. Forecasts provide a narrow but critical window to act before the most severe consequences are felt.

“The threat from El Niño is growing, and the risks for children are already clear,” said Etleva Kadilli, UNICEF Regional Director for Eastern and Southern Africa. “Across the region, children are facing food and water insecurity, overstretched health services and disrupted learning. Further, major climate shocks will likely push children and the systems they rely on to breaking point.”

UNICEF assessments point to urgent and overlapping risks for children in Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. For example, in Somalia, flooding could directly affect up to 2.5 million people under the most severe scenario mapping, driving displacement and impacting children’s access to food, healthcare, safe water and education; in Ethiopia, tens of thousands of children are likely to be affected, particularly in areas already facing severe food insecurity and vulnerability; and in South Sudan, drought, extreme heat and localized flooding threaten to deepen food insecurity and malnutrition, increase disease outbreaks and compound famine risks and large-scale displacement.

Yet less than one per cent of international humanitarian assistance is currently available for anticipatory action, even though this is key to saving lives, reducing humanitarian needs and protecting hard-won development gains. UNICEF is calling for urgent investment in child-critical response gaps before the impacts peak;

• Scale up nutrition services: Pre‑position life-saving supplies and expand early screening and treatment.
• Support health and WASH systems: Strengthen disease surveillance, essential vaccination campaigns and health services, and secure safe water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH).
• Keep children learning: Reinforce school infrastructure and prepare safe, alternative learning spaces before disruption occurs.
  Protect children from violence and exploitation: Expand psychosocial support, family tracing and reunification, and measures to prevent gender-based violence.
• Strengthen shock-responsive social protection: Link early-warning systems to anticipatory cash assistance and other social protection measures, while building the capacity of government-led systems to respond to future shocks.

UNICEF urgently requires US$173 million, within its existing 2026 Humanitarian Action for Children (HAC) requirements, to reach children and families with anticipatory and life-saving assistance across 13 priority countries. Early, flexible financing is critical now before the effects of El Niño intensify.

Acting on forecasts – before images of crisis emerge – protects children and delivers significant value: every US$1 invested in disaster risk reduction can save up to US$15 in future recovery costs.

“We know what is coming, which children are most at risk and how to protect them,” continued Kadilli. “The choice is whether the world responds now, or waits until the crisis escalates, and children pay an even greater price.”

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Note to editors

El Niño is a natural climate pattern characterized by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, which alter rainfall, temperatures and weather extremes around the world.

The impacts will unfold differently across the Eastern and Southern Africa region and over time, with East Africa facing an increased threat of flooding during the short-rains season, while poor rainfall and harvests could deepen food insecurity across Southern Africa. The consequences for children, including rising malnutrition, disease and disruption to essential services, could continue well into 2027.

For more information, please contact UNICEF UK Media team at [email protected] or 0208 375 6030.