Coronavirus could increase child deaths by 6,000 a day, UNICEF warns

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• New analysis estimates that a staggering 6,000 additional children around the world could die every day from impact of Coronavirus on health systems

• Pandemic threatens to reverse almost a decade of progress on ending preventable child deaths

• Celebrity supporters including Ewan McGregor and Rita Ora rally round as UNICEF launches #GenerationCovid campaign– its largest ever appeal for children across the world

13 MAY 2020 – An additional 6,000 children around the world could die every day from preventable causes over the next six months as the Coronavirus pandemic weakens health systems and disrupts routine services, UNICEF said today as it launches the biggest ever appeal for children in its 73 year history.

Analysis of UNICEF figures by the John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, published today in The Lancet Global Health Journal, looks at the worst of three scenarios in 118 low-middle income countries. The analysis estimates that an additional 1.2 million under-five deaths could occur in just six months, due to reductions in routine health services and an increase in child wasting.

These projected child deaths would be in addition to the 2.5 million children who already die before their fifth birthday every six months, threatening to reverse nearly a decade of progress on ending preventable child deaths.

“This pandemic is having far-reaching consequences for all of us, but it is undoubtedly the biggest and most urgent global crisis children have faced since World War Two,” said Unicef UK’s Executive Director Sacha Deshmukh.

“Children’s lives are being upended across the globe – their support systems ripped away, their borders closed, their educations lost, their food supply cut off. Even in the UK, children face the threat of a measles outbreak and school closures are putting vulnerable children at increased risk.”

The research highlights how in countries with already weak health systems, Coronavirus is causing disruptions in medical supply chains and straining financial and human resources. Visits to health care centres are declining due to lockdowns, curfews and transport disruptions, and as communities remain fearful of infection.

In response, Unicef UK is launching its biggest ever appeal, “Save Generation Covid”, to help tackle the impact of Coronavirus and support its ongoing response to children and families around the world, urging the UK public to rally behind its fundraising efforts in order to reach the world’s most vulnerable children and families. Unicef UK’s appeal will support ongoing efforts to tackle Coronavirus globally by supplying vital medical equipment, working with communities, supporting health, education and social services for children, tackling misinformation and carrying out prevention campaigns.

Unicef UK Ambassador, Ewan McGregor said: “In all my sixteen years of being a Unicef UK Ambassador, there has never been such a far-reaching, global appeal that aims to help children and families around the world affected by the same single, unifying crisis. That thousands of children will die every day as a result of missing out on basic medical support is truly heart-breaking. Over the years, I have met children all over the world with UNICEF in places with weaker health systems like Ethiopia, Malawi and India – and knowing their chances of dying have been dangerously increased due to the Coronavirus pandemic is a terrible situation. Please join UNICEF in ensuring that we can save the Covid generation, and all children are able to survive this crisis and thrive long after it.”

Unicef UK Ambassador, Rita Ora said: “Over the years working with Unicef UK, I have seen how small donations can make a really big difference to children affected by poverty, natural disasters and conflicts around the world. As the Coronavirus pandemic continues to devastate poorer countries globally, I am proud to be supporting Unicef UK’s campaign, to support children in the biggest crisis we have seen since World War Two. I hope that as well as raising vital funds for children and families affected by this crisis around the world, we also raise awareness of the underlying long-term effects the virus may have on the future of children everywhere. Children are increasingly becoming the hidden victims of this crisis – let’s not leave them to suffer in silence!”

Today’s new research examines the impact of the pandemic on life-saving healthcare for children and mothers across three scenarios. It warns that in the most optimistic scenario, where health services are reduced by around 15 per cent, there would be a 9.8 per cent increase in under-five child deaths – an estimated 1,400 a day – and an 8.3 per cent increase in maternal deaths.

In the worst-case scenario, where health services are reduced by around 45 per cent, there could be as much as a 44.7 per cent increase in under-five child deaths and 38.6 per cent increase in maternal deaths per month. Services analysed included family planning, antenatal and postnatal care, child delivery, vaccinations and preventive and curative health care. The estimates show that if routine health care is disrupted and access to food is decreased, the increase in child and maternal deaths will be devastating.

The greatest number of additional child deaths would be caused by an increase in malnutrition and wasting among children (posing long-term health risks) and a reduction in the treatment of neonatal sepsis and pneumonia. In addition to child deaths, some 56,700 more maternal deaths could also occur in just six months, in addition to the 144,000 deaths that already take place in the same countries over a six-month period.

The 10 countries projected to have the greatest additional number of child deaths in the worst-case scenario are Bangladesh, Brazil, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Uganda and United Republic of Tanzania. The 10 countries that are most likely to witness the highest excess child mortality rates under the worst-case scenario are: Djibouti, Eswatini, Lesotho, Liberia, Mali, Malawi, Nigeria, Pakistan, Sierra Leone and Somalia. Continued provision of life-saving services is critical in these countries. In addition to the estimated potential rise in under-five and maternal deaths described in the analysis, UNICEF is deeply alarmed by the other knock-on effects of the pandemic on children:

• An estimated 77 per cent of children under the age of 18 worldwide – 1.80 billion out of 2.35 billion – were living in one of the 132 countries with stay-at-home policies, as of early May.
• Nearly 1.3 billion students – over 72 per cent – are out of school as a result of nationwide school closures in 177 countries.
• 40 per cent of the world’s population are not able to wash their hands with soap and water at home.
• Nearly 370 million children across 143 countries who normally rely on school meals for a reliable source of daily nutrition must now look to other sources as schools are shuttered.
• As of 14 April, over 117 million children in 37 countries may miss out on their measles vaccination as the pandemic causes immunisation campaigns to stop to reduce the risk of spreading the virus.

The charity also states that as well as the immediate response needed to support children, the UK government should work with partner countries and donors, to support in building sustainable and strong health systems now to ensure the world’s poorest countries can fight the pandemic while protecting the delivery of essential health services.

“We cannot allow almost a decade of progress on ending preventable child deaths to become undone on our watch,” adds Deshmukh.

“If we have learned anything from this crisis, it’s that our lives are interconnected and we all have a duty to protect children and families around the world. We urgently need the UK public to support Unicef UK in our biggest ever appeal and help us save the Covid generation and ensure that children around the world survive this crisis – and thrive beyond it.” 

Unicef UK’s Save Generation Covid appeal launches today – visit unicef.uk/donate-generationcovid to donate and help #GenerationCovid.

ENDS

Notes to editors:

• Download photos, broll and the paper here. Review the data for 118 countries here.
• #GenerationCovid: UNICEF is appealing for £1.3 billion ($USD 1.6) to tackle the impact of Coronavirus on vital services for children. Please donate at uk/donate-generationcovid

The authors of the Lancet Global Health study used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to model maternal and under-five child mortality for three scenarios in 118 low- and middle-income countries.

They modelled three scenarios in which the coverage of essential maternal and child health interventions is reduced by 9·8–51·9 per cent and the prevalence of wasting is increased by 10–50 per cent.  They estimated additional deaths for a single month and extrapolated for 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months.

These interventions range from family planning, antenatal and postnatal care, child delivery, vaccinations and preventive and curative services. The modelled scenarios are hypothetical and do not reflect actual policies or distinguish between mitigation strategies—only that disruptions will occur. 

About UNICEF’s Coronavirus Response:

UNICEF is working to meet the immediate needs of children and families, as well as continuing longer term work to reduce existing vulnerabilities including malnutrition, displacement and chronic poverty. The response is built around a six-point Agenda for Action that supports Governments and calls on decision-makers to:

• Keep children healthy and well nourished
• Reach vulnerable children with water, sanitation and hygiene
• Keep children learning
• Support families to cover their needs and care for their children
• Protect children from violence, exploitation and abuse
• Protect refugee and migrant children, and those affected by conflict

 For more information, please contact:

Alexandra Murdoch, 0207 375 6179, [email protected]

Unicef UK Media Team, 0207 375 6030, [email protected]

 About UNICEF

UNICEF is the world’s leading organisation for children, promoting the rights and wellbeing of every child, in everything we do. Together with our partners, we work in 190 countries and territories to translate that commitment into practical action, focusing special effort on reaching the most vulnerable and excluded children, to the benefit of all children, everywhere.

Unicef UK raises funds to protect children in danger, transform their lives and build a safer world for tomorrow’s children. As a registered charity we raise funds through donations from individuals, organisations and companies and we lobby and campaign to keep children safe. Unicef UK also runs programmes in schools, hospitals and with local authorities in the UK.

For more information please visit unicef.org.uk

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